An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $6.01
Umicore SA holds its Distribution at $6.01.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-30
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 8 days
Price
$6.01
Valuation
13.36 trailing · 3.40 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.90
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$6.01
13.36 P/E · 3.40 fwd
Our fair value
$8.70
45% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$7.68
+28% to current
Target low $6.66Analyst target rangeTarget high $8.70
▲ current $6.01 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$6.01
you are here
Conservative
$8.70
+45%
Analyst avg
$7.68
+28%
Our fair value
$8.70
+45%
Analyst high
$8.70
+45%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
44.10%
Profit margin
1.98%
Debt to equity
125.10
Analyst consensus
None · 2 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 39.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 21.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Cheap battery materials stock blocked by debt ethics
Every electric vehicle and industrial catalyst depends on refined metals that cross complex supply chains. Umicore handles that work at scale, posting 44% revenue growth and a forward P/E of just 3.1x while delivering 19% ROE. The market prices the shares at $5.44 against a $8.70 fair value, yet the ethical screen fails outright on the debt ratio, so we pass.
The low multiple and moderate moat reflect real operating leverage in clean-tech materials. Two analysts see an $8 median target, but none of that offsets the debt breach that places the business outside our criteria.
High growth cannot mask the leverage risk or the thin 2% profit margin that leaves little room for error in a cyclical sector. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
UMICY trades on PNK. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 58% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 89%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $8. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markup$6.62+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 58% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 89%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-07-03Markup$6.62+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$6.62Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$6.39
-2.7%
·
$973
-2.7%
2 months
$4.96
+25.5%
$0.15
$1,285
+28.5%
3 months
$4.77
+30.3%
$0.15
$1,333
+33.3%
6 months
$4.50
+38.1%
$0.15
$1,413
+41.3%
1 year
$3.29
+89.2%
$0.15
$1,937
+93.7%
2 years
$4.09
+52.1%
$0.29
$1,591
+59.1%
3 years
$6.52
-4.5%
$0.50
$1,032
+3.2%
5 years
$12.68
-51.0%
$0.94
$564
-43.6%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever UMICY does next, these words stay.
Umicore SA · UMICY · Distribution · $6.01
Recorded 2026-07-30 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
