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The Screen · Communication Services · Telecom Services
T-Mobile US
TMUS · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $194.9B · 75,000 employees
T-Mobile US, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides wireless communications services in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the United States Virgin Islands.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
168.18 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-18 · not a live quote Last reviewed 4 days ago
Screened 2026-09-18 · the tape above runs as of 07:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 168.18 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 276.32, over the last year.
Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-10
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price168.18 USD
Fair value276.32
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Markup178.10-5.6% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
T-Mobile US holds its Distribution at $168.18. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 251 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 251 days
Price at the screen
$168.18
Valuation
18.99 trailing · 12.58 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.33
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
55.77%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 55.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.78%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 4.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 64% discount to our $276.32 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 7.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 64.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 24 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +40% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
T-Mobile US - Spectacular Numbers amid Debt Woes
Imagine being on the cutting edge of the telecom revolution, yet burdened by a debt that could sink a battleship. That's T-Mobile US in a nutshell. This company, operating in the heart of the digital age, offers voice, messaging, and data services, and is renowned for its growth and profitability. But its debt ratio causes us to fail it on our ethical screen. Why it stands out. Despite these ethical concerns, the numbers are hard to ignore - revenue growth of 8%, a profit margin of 11%, and an ROE of 18%. The forward P/E of 12.6x is tantalizingly low, suggesting the market may have overlooked the company's potential.
However, the risk lies in the company's debt ratio, which is high enough to fail our ethical screen. High debt can be a precarious balancing act for a business, particularly when economic winds shift. It's like building a skyscraper on a weak foundation - impressive while it stands, but a risk if the ground shifts.
In conclusion, despite the attractive valuation and growth prospects, T-Mobile US's high debt ratio is a red flag that leads us to avoid it ethically. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TMUS trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-23Markup$181.22-5.8%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $261.
2026-07-22Markup$192.43+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $261. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markup$192.43+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $261. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markup$192.43+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $261. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Markup$192.43+8.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $261. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$178.10+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $261. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Markup$178.10+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $261. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-16Markup$178.10+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $261. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Markup$178.10+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$178.10Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
