An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, provides messenger RNA medicines in the United States, Europe, and internationally.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $61.82
Moderna holds its Distribution at $61.82.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 37 days
Price
$61.82
Valuation
N/A trailing · -15.03 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.94
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
Does not pass. Revenue purity
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 10.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 18.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 22.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purity16.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards — business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance.
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $45.00 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 260.20% revenue growth.
Read at
$61.82
N/A P/E · -15.03 fwd
Our fair value
$45.00
27% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$45.00
-27% to current
Target low $22.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $79.00
▲ current $61.82 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$61.82
you are here
Conservative
$30.91
-50%
Analyst avg
$45.00
-27%
Our fair value
$45.00
-27%
Analyst high
$79.00
+28%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
260.20%
Profit margin
-143.55%
Debt to equity
17.52
Analyst consensus
Hold · 19 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
mRNA Pioneer Now Trades Above Its Worth
Think of Moderna as the firm that delivered the first big mRNA shot yet now hunts for its next hit while revenue purity fails our ethical screen. We pass because the shares sit 27% above our $45 fair value, the forward multiple is negative, and the moat looks weak.
Revenue grew 260% yet the profit margin sits at minus 144% and return on equity at minus 37%. Nineteen analysts call it a hold with a median target at $45, numbers that line up with our own read.
High cyclical demand for one product line leaves earnings exposed and the ethical flag adds a second reason to stay clear. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
MRNA trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $43. Entered 2026-07-18 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Distribution$47.44+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $43.
2026-07-03Distribution$47.44+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$47.44Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
