NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,418+0.42%BTC$81,092+6.14%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 21:00 UTC
The Screen · Real Estate · REIT - Residential
Mid-America Apartment Communities
MAA · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $15.2B · 2,507 employees
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.is a S&P 500 company.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
127.48 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Mid-America Apartment Communities holds its Markdown at $127.48. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$127.48
Valuation
37.38 trailing · 38.87 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.72
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
45.34%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 45.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.34%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.50%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $87.26 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 1.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 31.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 25 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +14% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
High price for sluggish apartment returns
Picture a landlord charging top rent while occupancy inches up at one percent a year. That is the setup with this residential REIT. Shares sit well above our fair value with a forward multiple of 40.5 times earnings, yet revenue growth barely registers and return on equity is just seven percent. The narrow moat and ethical screen failure on debt levels seal the case to pass.
Analysts see a hold and a median target only modestly above the current price, but the numbers do not support chasing it. Profit margins at eighteen percent look ordinary for the sector and offer little cushion if interest costs rise further. Low growth plus stretched valuation rarely ends well for patient capital.
The real concern sits with leverage. Debt ratios already breach our ethical screen, leaving little room if rents soften or refinancing costs climb. This looks like a classic value trap dressed up as stability. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MAA trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-04Markdown · changed$131.31-3.2%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $141.
2026-08-05Markup$135.64-1.4%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $141.
2026-07-18Markup$137.54+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $141.
2026-07-03Markup$137.54+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$137.54Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
