Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 19:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
ICL Group Ltd holds its Accumulation at $5.72. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 116 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 116 days
Price at the screen
$5.72
Valuation
23.83 trailing · 12.99 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.00
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
31.36%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 31.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
5.63%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 5.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades above our $4.80 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 16.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 16.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +3% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Fertiliser swings look tempting until the cycle turns
Picture a farmer watching potash prices swing like a weather vane in a storm. ICL sits right in that storm, mining and mixing the minerals that feed crops worldwide. Revenue climbing 14 percent shows demand still has legs, yet the business earns only a 4 percent profit margin and 5 percent return on equity while its competitive edge stays weak.
The 11.2 times forward earnings multiple looks modest next to growth, and the ethical screen raises no flags. Four analysts sit on hold with a $6 median target, a touch above the current price. That combination earns an opportunity label on paper, but the low multiple in a cyclical sector often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain.
Margins can collapse quickly when commodity prices fall or currency moves hit Israeli exporters. Weak returns and thin protection mean any dip in volumes bites straight into profits. The narrow gap to fair value leaves little room for disappointment. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Israel and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ICL trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Israel). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-01Accumulation$5.75+11.0%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 11.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-08-02Accumulation · changed$5.18-9.6%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 9.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-07-18Markup$5.73+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-07-03Markup$5.73+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$5.73Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
