The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $200. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Intercontinental Exchange ICE
Outside both standards
An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology and data to financial institutions, corporations, and government entities in the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union,…
read at $145.79
Intercontinental Exchange holds its Markup at $145.79.
- PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
- INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
- SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
- edge confirmed
- edge broken
- edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
The investor read · the season, not the day
| Phase | Markup |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days |
| Price | $145.79 |
| Valuation | 21.22 trailing · 16.72 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | FAIL · score 10.0 |
| Beta | 0.95 |
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 7% discount to our $155.41 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 20.40% revenue growth.
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
| Revenue growth | 20.40% |
| Profit margin | 37.67% |
| Debt to equity | 70.99 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy · 15 covering |
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
Used by most halal investing apps ✗ DOES NOT PASS
The one Titan applies ✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its business activity screen. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
What these two standards are, and how they differ →
- Business activity Business activity: Financials sector Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
The Quiet Engine Behind Global Trading Floors
Every futures contract or equity trade that clears in New York or London runs across pipes built by a handful of exchange groups. Intercontinental Exchange sits at the centre of that network, posting 20% revenue growth, 38% profit margins and a 14% return on equity while the market prices it at 16 times forward earnings with an 11% margin of safety to our fair value.
We pass for one reason that has nothing to do with the numbers. The business fails our ethical screen on activity grounds. This is exactly what the screen is for.
The moderate moat and strong buy analyst chorus do not change the outcome. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 16.7x fairly priced for its growth rate |
| Trailing P/E | 21.2x a premium valuation |
| Revenue growth | 20.4% strong top-line growth |
| Profit margin | 37.7% highly profitable on every dollar of sales |
| Return on equity | 13.9% a solid return on shareholder capital |
| Debt to equity | 0.71 moderate, manageable leverage |
| Current ratio | 1.01 adequate liquidity, worth monitoring |
| Beta | 0.95 steadier than the market |
| Market cap | $82.4B |
| Employees | 12,694 |
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Latest news · what the market is reading on ICE
- › Financial Exchanges & Data Stocks Q1 Highlights: Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) StockStory · 17d ago
- › Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Hits Record Natural Gas Open Interest As LNG Demand Grows Simply Wall St. · 17d ago
- › Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Stock Fair Value Edges Lower As Analysts Trim Targets Simply Wall St. · 18d ago
- › Investors’ Concerns About Regulatory Changes Hurt Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Insider Monkey · 18d ago
- › Does Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Have a Positive Outlook Amid Challenges? Insider Monkey · 18d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference — not our reporting, not advice.
Related securities · others in ICE's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
ICE trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $200. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $200. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $200. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $200. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $200. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $200. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $200.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed
| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | GARDINER WARREN | Chief Financial Officer | 2,490 | $390,034 | |
| 2026-05-18 | HAGUE WILLIAM JEFFERSON | Director | 1,538 | · | |
| 2026-05-18 | SILVER CAROLINE LOUISE | Director | 1,698 | · | |
| 2026-05-18 | TIRINNANZI MARTHA A | Director | 1,698 | · | |
| 2026-05-18 | COOPER SHANTELLA E | Director | 1,538 | · | |
| 2026-05-18 | FAROOQUI DURIYA M | Director | 1,538 | · | |
| 2026-05-18 | BOWEN SHARON J.D. | Director | 1,538 | · | |
| 2026-05-18 | HILL JONATHAN HOPKIN | Director | 1,698 | · | |
| 2026-05-14 | KAPANI MAYUR | Chief Technology Officer | 4,271 | $663,797 | |
| 2026-05-14 | KAPANI MAYUR | Chief Technology Officer | 4,271 | $286,157 |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 May2026 | Josh Gottheimer | Democrat | buy | 1K–15K |
| 5 Jun2026 | Gil Cisneros | Democrat | buy | 1K–15K |
| 29 Apr2026 | Thomas Kean Jr | Republican | sell | 1K–15K |
| 27 May2026 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | buy | 1K–15K |
| 27 Apr2026 | Josh Gottheimer | Democrat | buy | 1K–15K |
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $157.82 | -11.2% | · | $889 | -11.2% |
| 2 months | $160.60 | -12.7% | · | $873 | -12.7% |
| 3 months | $158.10 | -11.3% | $0.52 | $890 | -11.0% |
| 6 months | $162.09 | -13.5% | $1.00 | $871 | -12.9% |
| 1 year | $173.49 | -19.2% | $1.96 | $819 | -18.1% |
| 2 years | $130.77 | +7.2% | $3.79 | $1,101 | +10.1% |
| 3 years | $105.88 | +32.4% | $5.50 | $1,376 | +37.6% |
| 5 years | $105.63 | +32.7% | $8.43 | $1,407 | +40.7% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.