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The Screen · Financials · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
Intercontinental Exchange
ICE · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $88.6B · 12,694 employees
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology and data to financial institutions, corporations, and government entities in the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union,…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
157.76 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Intercontinental Exchange holds its Distribution at $157.76. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$157.76
Valuation
22.22 trailing · 17.93 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.93
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $157.01 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 4.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 0.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +15% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
The Quiet Engine Behind Global Trading Floors
Every futures contract or equity trade that clears in New York or London runs across pipes built by a handful of exchange groups. Intercontinental Exchange sits at the centre of that network, posting 20% revenue growth, 38% profit margins and a 14% return on equity while the market prices it at 16 times forward earnings with an 11% margin of safety to our fair value.
We pass for one reason that has nothing to do with the numbers. The business fails our ethical screen on activity grounds. This is exactly what the screen is for.
The moderate moat and strong buy analyst chorus do not change the outcome. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ICE trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-30Markup · changed$158.61+8.8%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $200.
2026-07-30Distribution$145.79+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $200. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Distribution$145.79+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $200. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Distribution$145.79+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $200. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$145.79+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $200. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Distribution$145.79+4.4%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $200. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Distribution$139.65+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $200. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Distribution$139.65-1.3%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $200. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$141.50+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $200.
2026-07-03Distribution$141.50+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
