Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price45.84 USD
Fair value52.00
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-31Read Accumulation43.48+5.4% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup38.13+20.2% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Global Ship Lease, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $45.84. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 264 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 264 days
Price at the screen
$45.84
Valuation
4.47 trailing · 5.17 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.85
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
50.86%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 50.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
35.29%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 35.3% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 13.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap container shipping masks an ethical fail
Every time a box of electronics leaves Shanghai for Rotterdam the cash flow runs through vessels like these. Global Ship Lease shows a strong moat, 51 percent profit margins and 22 percent return on equity, yet we pass because the balance sheet breaches our debt screen.
The forward multiple sits at just 4.5 times with revenue edging up 2 percent, numbers that look attractive beside a 27 percent margin of safety to our $51 fair value. Three analysts see $48 on average, but low multiples on cyclical assets often flag peak earnings rather than bargains.
High debt remains the decisive issue even when operations appear solid. Shipping cycles turn fast and leverage amplifies the downside when rates collapse. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GSL trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $51.
2026-07-31Markup$40.16+5.3%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $48.
2026-07-18Markup$38.13+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $48.
2026-07-03Markup$38.13+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$38.13Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
