NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,412+0.27%BTC$77,965+2.04%VIX15.48+0.26%live tape · as of 13:00 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Credit Services
Capital One
COF · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $131.3B · 77,100 employees
Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United Stat…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
213.96 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Capital One holds its Markdown at $213.96. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 41 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 41 days
Price at the screen
$213.96
Valuation
11.78 trailing · 8.91 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.02
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 40% discount to our $300.00 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 1,111.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 40.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +19% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Capital One's Ethics Miss Outweighs Financials
Every time a customer swipes their Capital One card or applies for a loan, they're dealing with a company that has a strong financial footing but a failing ethical scorecard. Capital One operates as a financial services holding company, with a robust revenue growth of 1111% and a healthy profit margin of 22%. Despite these impressive numbers, the company's business activities have led to it failing our ethical screen, which is a critical factor we consider.
Why it stands out, at first glance, is the significant margin of safety. With our fair value estimate at $300, there's a +41% upside from the current price of $212.48. Coupled with a forward P/E of 8.8x, which is quite attractive, and a respectable return on equity of 9%, the numbers might suggest a compelling investment. However, this is overshadowed by the ethical failings, which we cannot overlook.
Risk sits around failing the ethical screen, which is non-negotiable for our investment considerations. Despite the bullish financial metrics and the consensus buy rating from 22 analysts with a median target of $254, the ethical failing is a significant red flag. This is not just about numbers; it's about aligning investments with values. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
COF trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $255.
2026-07-21Markdown$208.03+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $255. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markdown$208.03+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $255. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Markdown$208.03+15.1%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 15.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $255. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markdown$180.67+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $255. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Markdown$180.67+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $255. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-16Markdown$180.67+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $255. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Markdown$180.67+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$180.67Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
