Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price8.09 USD
Fair value11.09
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution8.09+0.0% to today
2026-08-24Read Markup8.16-0.9% to today
2026-07-02Read Markdown5.60+44.5% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Webull Corporation holds its Distribution at $8.09. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 306 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-22
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 306 days
Price at the screen
$8.09
Valuation
13.26 trailing · 25.68 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.58
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: leveraged / inverse / derivative instrument (gharar)
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Its core business involves an activity the values screen does not clear.
Fail
Debt load
2.06%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 2.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
58.34%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 58.3% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Webull does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in an area the screen excludes: leveraged / inverse / derivative instrument (gharar), so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 37% discount to our $11.09 fair value, weak competitive moat, 51.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-22 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 37.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +73% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-22 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Webull chases traders yet fails basic checks
Picture a trading app that pulls in users fast across borders. Revenue climbs 36 percent, yet the firm still posts a 2 percent loss margin and negative 1 percent return on equity, with a weak moat protecting nothing durable. The ethical screen flags a failed cash ratio, so we pass regardless of the 45 percent gap between the 7.23 price and our 10.46 fair value.
Forward earnings sit at 23.7 times while three analysts still push a 13 target and a strong buy call. That optimism ignores the missing profits and thin competitive edge that leave little room for error once growth slows.
Risk sits in the cash shortfall and thin margins that could turn any slowdown into deeper losses. The market loves the story, yet the numbers and ethics point the other way. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BULL trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Distribution · changed$8.09-0.9%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $12. Since the last review it entered the Tech 100; its composite score rose.
2026-08-24Markup · changed$8.16+12.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 12.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-07-24Markdown$7.23+29.1%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 29.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-07-18Markdown$5.60+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-07-03Markdown$5.60+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$5.60Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
