Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price112.61 USD
Fair value150.00
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-23Read Distribution113.11-0.4% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markdown126.46-11.0% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Bunge Global holds its Distribution at $112.61. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 35 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 35 days
Price at the screen
$112.61
Valuation
24.22 trailing · 9.93 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.66
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
35.61%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 35.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
3.66%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.24%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.29%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 33% discount to our $150.00 fair value, weak competitive moat, 88.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 33.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +24% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Bunge trades cheap but the trap is real
Picture a grain trader watching prices swing with the weather. One strong year fills the silos but the next brings thin spreads and rising costs. Bunge shows exactly that pattern, with revenue up 88 percent yet a profit margin of just 1 percent and return on equity at 5 percent. The forward multiple of 10.7 times looks attractive on the surface, yet the weak moat and failing ethical screen on debt ratio tell us to stay away.
The low multiple reflects peak-cycle earnings rather than a bargain. Agribusiness margins compress quickly when harvests normalise or input costs rise, and the thin returns on equity confirm limited pricing power. Debt levels already breach our screen, adding another layer of fragility when commodity volatility hits funding costs.
Nine analysts may favour the shares with a median target near 142 dollars, but our verdict stays clear. The combination of cyclical exposure, weak profitability and the debt breach outweighs any apparent margin of safety.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142.
2026-07-22Markdown$119.15-5.8%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142.
2026-07-18Markdown$126.46+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142.
2026-07-03Markdown$126.46+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$126.46Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
