Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.14, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price83.48 USD
Fair value79.14
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution69.71+19.8% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 12% slide in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup79.48+5.0% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation holds its Markup at $83.48. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 40 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-28
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 40 days
Price at the screen
$83.48
Valuation
11.64 trailing · 11.00 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.37
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
43.92%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 43.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
9.36%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 9.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.15%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Booz Allen Hamilton's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 44% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 5.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Government contractor looks cheap until the debt bites
Booz Allen helps agencies keep systems running, yet the same contracts have left the balance sheet carrying too much debt. That single ethical red flag ends any interest here, even though the forward multiple sits at 9.5 times and return on equity reaches 81 percent. Revenue is already falling 6 percent, so the headline numbers offer no cushion once leverage is taken into account.
The 9 percent gap between the current price and our fair value looks attractive on paper, and analysts still cluster around an 80 dollar target. Moderate competitive protection and an 8 percent profit margin cannot offset the structural problem flagged by the screen. We therefore pass without hesitation.
High return on equity often flatters firms that borrow heavily to buy back shares. When revenue is shrinking, that leverage becomes a genuine risk rather than a clever tactic. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BAH trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-23Distribution$74.06+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Distribution$74.06+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Distribution$74.06+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Distribution$74.06-0.6%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Distribution$74.50+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Distribution$74.50+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Distribution$74.50+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Distribution$74.50+0.8%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-13Distribution$73.94+6.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $96.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $96. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
