An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · American Express Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated payments company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, the Asia Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, Latin America, Cana…
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $326.17
American Express holds its Markup at $326.17.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days
Price
$326.17
Valuation
20.36 trailing · 16.17 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.05
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 4% discount to our $338.77 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 11.60% revenue growth.
Read at
$326.17
20.36 P/E · 16.17 fwd
Our fair value
$338.77
4% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$375.00
+15% to current
Target low $324.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $450.00
▲ current $326.17 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$326.17
you are here
Conservative
$291.60
-11%
Analyst avg
$375.00
+15%
Our fair value
$338.77
+4%
Analyst high
$450.00
+38%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
11.60%
Profit margin
16.31%
Debt to equity
177.85
Analyst consensus
Buy · 25 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its business activity screen. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityBusiness activity: Financials sectorFail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Premium Card Swipe Hits Ethical Wall
Picture the swipe of a premium card at a high end restaurant. American Express sits at the heart of that transaction flow. Yet we pass on the name for two clear reasons. The shares trade above our fair value and the ethical screen flags a hard fail on business activity.
Revenue is growing at 12 percent with a 16 percent profit margin and 34 percent return on equity. The forward multiple sits at 17.6 times earnings. Analysts lean buy with a median target of 375 dollars, yet the current price of 355 dollars leaves almost no margin of safety against our 339 dollar fair value.
Risks centre on the ethical flag and the moderate moat in a competitive payments space. A premium valuation without an ethical pass leaves little room for error. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
AXP trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-07-24 · Markdown
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-24Markdown$355.35+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markdown$355.35+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markdown$355.35+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markdown$355.35+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markdown$355.35+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Markdown$355.35+14.4%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 14.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markdown$310.66+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Markdown$310.66+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Markdown$310.66+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$310.66Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
