Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price281.76 USD
Fair value228.14
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-21Read Markdown297.71-5.4% to today ✓
2026-08-21Read Accumulation300.33-6.2% to today
2026-07-02Read Markdown282.35-0.2% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Air Products holds its Markdown at $281.76. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 12 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-25
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 12 days
Price at the screen
$281.76
Valuation
N/A trailing · 19.52 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.75
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
44.83%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 44.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
13.11%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 13.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.15%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Air Products's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 45% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $228.14 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 4.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 19.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +25% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Paying Premium Prices for Debt Laden Gases
Picture a factory line that cannot run without steady oxygen and nitrogen. Air Products supplies those essentials yet trades at a 22% premium to our fair value while failing the ethical screen on its debt ratio. We pass.
The numbers show 9% revenue growth and a 17% profit margin but the industry is cyclical. Peak earnings often coincide with compressed multiples later and a 20.7 times forward P/E offers scant protection if volumes turn. Moderate returns on equity and a moderate moat do not change that picture.
Twenty analysts rate the shares a buy with higher targets yet the valuation gap and debt concern remain clear flags. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
APD trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$281.76-5.4%Entry 8
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $328.
2026-09-21Markdown · changed$297.71-0.9%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $328.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $328.
2026-07-21Markdown$295.62+4.7%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $328.
2026-07-18Markdown$282.35+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $328.
2026-07-17Markdown$282.35+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $328.
2026-07-03Markdown$282.35+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$282.35Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
