NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,412+0.27%BTC$77,965+2.04%VIX15.48+0.26%live tape · as of 13:00 UTC
The Screen · Technology · Software - Application
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.
YMM · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $8.5B · 8,251 employees
Full Truck Alliance Co.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
8.17 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. holds its Markdown at $8.17. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$8.17
Valuation
13.62 trailing · 9.40 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.23
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Interest-bearing securities
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
0.08%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
33.67%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 33.7% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
13.86%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
7.64%
Below 5%
7.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 85.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +49% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
China truck matching platform shows thin growth
Imagine a lorry driver in Zhengzhou waiting for the next load while shippers scramble to fill capacity across provinces. Full Truck Alliance sits in the middle of that flow, running a digital freight marketplace that posted a 33 percent profit margin and a forward P/E of 10.7 times. Revenue growth sits at just 6 percent, ROE at 10 percent, and our fair value implies a large cushion, yet the opportunity rating remains none.
The business clears our ethical screen and carries a strong buy label from fifteen analysts whose median target sits at twelve dollars. High margins and a low multiple look attractive on paper, but modest top-line expansion and an unknown competitive position leave little room for durable outperformance.
China regulatory and currency risks sit at the centre of any exposure here. Low single-digit growth also raises the chance that current earnings already reflect peak conditions rather than a platform ready to scale. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to China and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
YMM trades on the NYSE (the company is based in China). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-18Markdown · changed$8.17-14.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 14.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 12.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-18Markup$8.44+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-03Markup$8.44+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$8.44Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
