Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.00, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price8.93 USD
Fair value15.27
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Markdown8.37+6.7% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-11Read Accumulation8.17+9.3% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-09-18Read Markdown8.17+9.3% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 14% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-19Read Accumulation9.53-6.3% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 13% rise in 7 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. holds its Accumulation at $8.93. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 212 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 212 days
Price at the screen
$8.93
Valuation
15.26 trailing · 9.97 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.23
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Interest-bearing securities
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
0.08%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
33.67%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 33.7% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
13.86%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
7.64%
Below 5%
7.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Full Truck Alliance's business is fine, but its cash and interest-bearing securities are about 34% of its assets, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 41% discount to our $15.27 fair value, 4.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 41.5% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $15.27, with a range of $15.27 to $18.02, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
China truck matching platform shows thin growth
Imagine a lorry driver in Zhengzhou waiting for the next load while shippers scramble to fill capacity across provinces. Full Truck Alliance sits in the middle of that flow, running a digital freight marketplace that posted a 33 percent profit margin and a forward P/E of 10.7 times. Revenue growth sits at just 6 percent, ROE at 10 percent, and our fair value implies a large cushion, yet the opportunity rating remains none.
The business clears our ethical screen and carries a strong buy label from fifteen analysts whose median target sits at twelve dollars. High margins and a low multiple look attractive on paper, but modest top-line expansion and an unknown competitive position leave little room for durable outperformance.
China regulatory and currency risks sit at the centre of any exposure here. Low single-digit growth also raises the chance that current earnings already reflect peak conditions rather than a platform ready to scale. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to China and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
YMM trades on the NYSE (the company is based in China). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markdown · changed$8.37-5.2%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-10-25Accumulation$8.83+3.4%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-10-18Accumulation$8.54+4.5%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-10-11Accumulation · changed$8.17+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-10-02Markdown$8.17+0.0%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-09-18Markdown · changed$8.17-14.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 14.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 12.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-18Markup$8.44+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-03Markup$8.44+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$8.44Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
