Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 2.16, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price74.62 USD
Fair value72.39
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Distribution86.34-13.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after an 11% rise in 18 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup77.74-4.0% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
JFrog Ltd. holds its Distribution at $74.62. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 10 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 10 days
Price at the screen
$74.62
Valuation
N/A trailing · 75.36 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.31
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Interest-bearing securities
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
0.93%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
46.86%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 46.9% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
14.60%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
4.85%
Below 5%
Only 4.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
JFrog's business is fine, but its cash and interest-bearing securities are about 47% of its assets, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today FROG does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $72.39 fair value estimate, 28.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 3.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +54% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $72.39, with a range of $72.39 to $83.25, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Paying Up for Software Still Losing Money
Every developer team needs somewhere safe to store and update code packages. JFrog built that tool and revenue is still rising at 26 percent a year, yet the business keeps posting an 11 percent loss and a negative return on equity.
At 79 times forward earnings the shares sit 36 percent above our fair value with no margin of safety and an opportunity rating of none. Strong analyst targets do not change the simple fact that growth alone does not justify the price when profits remain absent.
The ethical screen is clear but the valuation leaves little room for slower growth or fresh competition. Peak multiples on unprofitable software often mark the expensive side of the cycle rather than a bargain.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FROG trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 49% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 90%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Markup$88.49-6.3%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 49% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 90%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Markup$94.39+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 49% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 90%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markup$94.39+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 49% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 90%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markup$94.39-6.2%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 6.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 49% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 90%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markup$100.62+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 49% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 90%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markup$100.62+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 49% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 90%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markup$100.62+10.6%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 49% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 90%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markup$91.00+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 49% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 90%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-21Markup$91.00-11.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 11.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 90%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $81. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
