Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price17.70 EUR
Fair value23.60
Ethical score70.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-16Read Markdown20.39-13.2% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution20.39-13.2% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Vonovia SE holds its Markdown at $17.70. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 24 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 24 days
Price at the screen
$17.70
Valuation
4.11 trailing · 9.26 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.47
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio 47.9%; Revenue purity 13.8%
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
47.88%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 47.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.87%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.65%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
13.81%
Below 5%
13.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Vonovia SE's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 48% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 33% discount to our $23.60 fair value.
Fair value range in EUR, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 33.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +69% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 9.3x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. Our fair value sits at $23.60, below where it trades today.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Germany and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VNA.DE trades on XETRA (the company is based in Germany). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$17.70-13.2%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 13.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $33. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-09-16Markdown$20.39+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $33.
2026-08-16Markdown · changed$20.39+0.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $33.
2026-07-18Distribution$20.39+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $33.
2026-07-03Distribution$20.39+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$20.39Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
What Holding Actually Paid · Price Plus Dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$21.21
-5.9%
$1.25
$1,000
+0.0%
2 months
$21.83
-8.5%
$1.25
$972
-2.8%
3 months
$22.86
-12.7%
$1.25
$928
-7.2%
6 months
$22.77
-12.3%
$1.25
$932
-6.8%
1 year
$27.74
-28.0%
$1.25
$765
-23.5%
2 years
$24.11
-17.2%
$2.47
$931
-6.9%
3 years
$16.37
+22.0%
$3.37
$1,425
+42.5%
5 years
$33.70
-40.8%
$5.87
$767
-23.3%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Ledger's Promise
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever VNA.DE does next, these words stay.
Vonovia SE · VNA.DE · Markdown · $17.70
Recorded 2026-09-18 · before the outcome · scored mechanically