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The Screen · Industrials · Airlines
United Airlines Holdings
UAL · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $34.8B · 115,600 employees
United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in the United States, Canada, Atlantic, the Pacific, and Latin America.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
107.12 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 22:36 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
United Airlines Holdings holds its Markdown at $107.12. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$107.12
Valuation
10.03 trailing · 7.07 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.27
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
40.60%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 40.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.74%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.90%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.03%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 35% discount to our $144.61 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 16.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 23 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +51% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Airlines look cheap until the cycle turns
Picture a packed plane one quarter and empty seats the next when fuel costs jump or travel slows. United Airlines sits in that exact trap, and we pass on the name. The ethical screen flags its debt ratio straight away, which alone rules it out before the numbers even enter the frame.
Forward earnings sit at just 7.5 times, revenue is rising 16 percent, and return on equity reaches 23 percent, yet the business carries a narrow moat and only 6 percent profit margins. In airlines those figures often mark peak-cycle earnings rather than a bargain, and the low multiple simply reflects how fast the good times can end.
Twenty-three analysts call it a strong buy with a 160 dollar median target, but none of that offsets the debt burden or the industry's built-in swings. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
UAL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-15Markdown · changed$107.12-19.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 19.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $159.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 25.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (24 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $130.
2026-07-18Markup$105.73+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (24 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $130.
2026-07-03Markup$105.73+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$105.73Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
