Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price38.60 USD
Fair value67.50
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-11Read Markdown42.51-9.2% to today ✓
2026-08-11Read Markup36.52+5.7% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc holds its Markdown at $38.60.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Price at the screen
$38.60
Valuation
N/A trailing · -10.43 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Interest-bearing securities
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
3.63%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 3.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
59.36%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 59.4% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
27.85%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 27.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
First Tracks Biotherapeutics's business is fine, but its cash and interest-bearing securities are about 59% of its assets, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 74.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +75% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Early Biotech Still Waiting On First Proof
Picture a lab bench with one promising molecule and no sales yet. First Tracks is exactly that, a clinical stage player whose lead candidate targets autoimmune inflammation but has delivered zero revenue and zero profit margin so far. The negative forward earnings multiple simply reflects cash burn that every similar name carries until trials clear later stages.
We pass because the opportunity rating shows none. An unknown moat, no current earnings, and heavy dependence on a single unproven asset outweigh the 15 percent gap to our fair value and the analysts' strong buy chorus. Ethical clearance is welcome, yet it does not turn an incomplete story into an investable one.
The real risk sits in trial failure or dilution that resets the clock, a pattern common in this sector. Peak earnings are nowhere in sight, so the low multiple offers no bargain, only a reminder that hope is not a margin. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; as a biotechnology name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TRAX trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$38.60-9.2%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $38.
2026-09-11Markdown · changed$42.51+16.4%Entry 2
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 16.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $38.
2026-08-11Markup$36.52Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $38.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.