NAS10028,945+0.02%S&P7,552−0.45%GOLD$4,309−0.55%BTC$76,138+0.69%VIX17.71+2.97%live tape · as of 00:54 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail
TJX Companies
TJX · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $141.8B · 377,000 employees
The TJX Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an off-price apparel and home fashions retailer worldwide.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
128.92 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 00:54 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
TJX Companies holds its Distribution at $128.92. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$128.92
Valuation
23.87 trailing · 22.33 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.59
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
37.71%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 37.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.10%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.32%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $124.57 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 5.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 3.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 20 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +36% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Discount Retail in a Debt Spiral
Picture this: Every time you head to your local TJ Maxx or Marshalls, you're hoping to score big on discounted apparel and home goods. TJX Companies, operating these stores, is a giant in the off-price retail space. What makes TJX stand out is its worldwide presence and revenue growth of 5%, along with a 62% return on equity. However, its stock price is trading at a premium, with our fair value set at $125.74, suggesting it's overvalued by 11%.
There's a hitch, though. Despite the strong buy consensus from analysts with a median target of $176, the numbers hint at a different story. The forward P/E of 24.3x is high, reflecting the stock's premium valuation. Moreover, TJX fails our ethical screen primarily due to concerns around its debt ratio. This could signify financial risk, especially in a retail landscape known for its volatility.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TJX trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $178. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-18Markup$159.92+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $178. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-16Markup$159.92+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $178. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-15Markup$159.92+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $178. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-14Markup$159.92+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $178. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-13Markup$159.92+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $178. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-12Markup$159.92-0.5%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $178. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$160.71+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $178.
2026-07-03Markup$160.71+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$160.71Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.