Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price176.40 INR
Fair value193.93
Ethical score70.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Markdown185.54-4.9% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 6% slide in 6 weeks
2026-08-29Read Accumulation197.86-10.8% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation
2026-07-25Read Distribution197.86-10.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-07-02Read Markdown197.86-10.8% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Tata Steel holds its Markdown at $176.40. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 131 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-15
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 131 days
Price at the screen
$176.40
Valuation
21.45 trailing · 9.87 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.73
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
30.67%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 30.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.01%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.58%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 4.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.32%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Tata Steel clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 31%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-24. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
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Today TATASTEEL.NS passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 10% discount to our $193.93 fair value, 12.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in INR, drawn from the 2026-10-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 9.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 35 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +30% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 9.9x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. Our fair value sits at $193.93, below where it trades today.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to India and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TATASTEEL.NS trades on NSE (the company is based in India). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-11Markdown · changed$185.54+0.0%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (35 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $225.
2026-10-02Accumulation$185.54-6.2%Entry 12
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 6.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (35 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $225.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (35 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $225.
2026-07-28Distribution$197.86+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (35 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Distribution$197.86+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (35 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$197.86+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (35 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (35 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markdown$197.86+0.0%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (35 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markdown$197.86+0.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (35 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markdown$197.86+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (35 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
The Ledger's Promise
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever TATASTEEL.NS does next, these words stay.
Tata Steel · TATASTEEL.NS · Markdown · $176.40
Recorded 2026-10-15 · before the outcome · scored mechanically