Palomar Holdings, Inc., a specialty insurance company, provides property and casualty insurance to individuals and businesses in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
136.58 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-04
Screened 2026-09-04 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Palomar Holdings, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $136.58. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 184 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-04
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 184 days
Price at the screen
$136.58
Valuation
18.36 trailing · 12.02 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.39
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 23.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +22% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurance growth story that still fails our test
Insurance pays out when homes shake or businesses burn, yet the sector itself lands on our prohibited list every time. Palomar shows 60% revenue growth, 20% profit margins and 23% ROE, with shares trading at 12.1 times forward earnings against a $166 consensus target. None of that matters once the ethical screen triggers.
We pass because the rule is clear and non-negotiable. The same filter kept us away from other names that otherwise looked attractive on paper. Strong metrics cannot override a hard sector exclusion.
Valuation sits below our calculated fair value, yet opportunity rating stays at none. Currency and catastrophe exposure add further uncertainty for any property-casualty book. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PLMR trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $154.
2026-08-08Markup · changed$136.11+18.5%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 18.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $154.
2026-07-18Distribution$114.85+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $154.
2026-07-03Distribution$114.85+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$114.85Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
