NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,417−0.18%BTC$81,133−0.12%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC · 20 Sep
The Screen · Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery
Otis Worldwide
OTIS · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $26.4B · 72,000 employees
Otis Worldwide Corporation engages in manufacturing, installation, and servicing of elevators and escalators in the United States, China, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
69.30 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 20 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 69.30 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 88.92, over the last year.
Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-08-27
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price69.30 USD
Fair value88.92
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-08Read Distribution71.49-3.1% to today ✓
2026-08-08Read Markup73.10-5.2% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution70.34-1.5% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Otis Worldwide holds its Distribution at $69.30. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 47 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 47 days
Price at the screen
$69.30
Valuation
17.81 trailing · 15.25 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.88
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
79.89%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 79.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
44.91%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 44.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 28% discount to our $88.92 fair value, 7.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 28.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +27% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Elevators running on borrowed time
Every time a building goes up the lift inside is probably an Otis. Yet the company carries a debt load that trips our ethical screen right away, so we pass despite the apparent discount to fair value.
Revenue edges up just 6% a year while margins sit at 10% and the forward multiple lands at 15.6 times. That combination does not scream bargain, especially when the moat remains unclear and the business sits in a mature industrial niche.
The real issue is leverage. High debt ratios expose the firm to rising rates and any slowdown in construction or maintenance spend. Twelve analysts may like the shares, yet our screen exists for exactly this reason. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
OTIS trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94.
2026-08-08Markup · changed$73.10+3.9%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94.
2026-07-18Distribution$70.34+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94.
2026-07-03Distribution$70.34+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$70.34Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
