An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Ormat Technologies, Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $107.38
Ormat Technologies, Inc. holds its Distribution at $107.38.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-06
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 19 days
Price
$107.38
Valuation
51.87 trailing · 42.01 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.90
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$107.38
51.87 P/E · 42.01 fwd
Our fair value
$85.42
21% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$132.50
+23% to current
Target low $115.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $152.00
▲ current $107.38 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$107.38
you are here
Conservative
$85.42
-20%
Analyst avg
$132.50
+23%
Our fair value
$85.42
-20%
Analyst high
$152.00
+42%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
75.80%
Profit margin
10.97%
Debt to equity
125.51
Analyst consensus
Buy · 12 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 45.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 5.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Geothermal power draws interest yet commands too high a price
Picture a company turning volcanic heat into electricity across distant sites from Kenya to Indonesia. Ormat clears the ethical screen with its focus on renewable baseload generation. Yet the shares sit 19% above our fair value of 85.15 dollars while trading on a forward multiple of 41.5 times earnings, a level that leaves little room for the modest 11% profit margin and 5% return on equity already on show.
Revenue has jumped 76% but the market appears to have priced in flawless execution. Twelve analysts still carry a buy rating with a 132 dollar median target, yet those forecasts sit well clear of the cash generation and capital intensity visible in the numbers. Low returns on equity suggest the growth may not compound for owners at anything like the rate the valuation assumes.
Execution across emerging markets brings currency swings, permitting delays and resource risk that a high multiple does not cushion. The business is sound on paper, but the entry price turns a reasonable enterprise into an expensive one. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
ORA trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 22.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $135. Entered 2026-08-07 · Distribution
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 22.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $135.
2026-07-18Markup$138.16+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $135.
2026-07-03Markup$138.16+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$138.16Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming ORA
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
8 May2026
Sheldon Whitehouse
Democrat
sell
100K–250K
8 May2026
Sheldon Whitehouse
Democrat
sell
100K–250K
8 Apr2026
Mike Kelly
Republican
buy
50K–100K
7 Oct2025
Tommy Tuberville
Republican
sell
15K–50K
7 May2026
Sheldon Whitehouse
Democrat
sell
15K–50K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$123.52
+10.8%
$0.12
$1,109
+10.9%
2 months
$115.11
+18.9%
$0.12
$1,190
+19.0%
3 months
$109.96
+24.5%
$0.12
$1,246
+24.6%
6 months
$114.77
+19.2%
$0.24
$1,194
+19.4%
1 year
$78.65
+74.0%
$0.48
$1,746
+74.6%
2 years
$73.73
+85.6%
$0.96
$1,869
+86.9%
3 years
$83.80
+63.3%
$1.44
$1,650
+65.0%
5 years
$68.97
+98.4%
$2.40
$2,019
+101.9%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever ORA does next, these words stay.
Ormat Technologies, Inc. · ORA · Distribution · $107.38
Recorded 2026-08-06 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
