Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price699.40 GBp
Fair value349.70
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Accumulation699.40+0.0% to today ✓
2026-09-08Read Markdown596.41+17.3% to today
2026-07-02Read Markup596.41+17.3% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
NatWest Group holds its Accumulation at $699.40. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 44 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 44 days
Price at the screen
$699.40
Valuation
999.14 trailing · 840.03 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity exclusion: FAIL on business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity exclusion: FAIL on business activity
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
NatWest does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in an area the screen excludes: Business activity exclusion: FAIL on business activity, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $349.70 fair value estimate, 7.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in GBp, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 50.0% above the base estimate.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 840.0x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 50% above our $349.70 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NWG.L trades on LSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 17.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $735.
2026-09-08Markdown · changed$596.41+0.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $735.
2026-08-07Markup$596.41+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $735.
2026-07-18Markup$596.41+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $735.
2026-07-03Markup$596.41+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$596.41Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.