NAS10030,808+1.00%S&P7,723+0.73%GOLD$4,184+0.52%BTC$86,009−0.55%VIX16.17+5.62%live tape · as of 13:03 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Nomad Foods Limited
NOMD · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $1.5B · 7,024 employees
Nomad Foods Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes a range of frozen food products in the United Kingdom and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
10.50 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-22 · not a live quote Last reviewed 13 days ago
Screened 2026-09-22 · the tape above runs as of 13:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 10.50 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 14.89, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price10.50 USD
Fair value14.89
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown10.50+0.0% to today
2026-09-06Read Distribution11.99-12.4% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup10.43+0.7% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Nomad Foods Limited holds its Distribution at $10.50. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 16 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-22
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 16 days
Price at the screen
$10.50
Valuation
10.50 trailing · 6.16 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.67
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
36.17%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 36.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.78%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.20%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Nomad Foods's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 36% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-22 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 41.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +32% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-22 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Frozen fish fingers offer little warmth for growth
Walk into any British supermarket freezer aisle and the bright packs of fish fingers and ready meals tell a familiar story of steady household staples. Nomad Foods sits right in the middle of that aisle yet its numbers show revenue sliding 6 percent while profit margins sit at just 4 percent and return on equity at 5 percent. The forward multiple of 6.2 times looks cheap next to a 27 percent gap to our fair value but the business is shrinking and returns remain thin so we pass.
Analysts still cluster around a buy rating with a 14 dollar median target and the ethical screen comes back clean. That combination keeps the name on the radar for some but the combination of negative top line momentum and modest profitability outweighs the apparent discount.
The real risk is that low multiples on declining packaged food volumes often mark the start of a longer grind rather than a quick rebound. Currency moves across Europe and shifting consumer tastes toward fresh options could keep pressure on both sales and already slim margins. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to United Kingdom and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NOMD trades on the NYSE (the company is based in United Kingdom). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$10.50-12.4%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 12.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-08-07Markup$11.51+10.4%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-18Markup$10.43+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-03Markup$10.43+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$10.43Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
