Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price41.57 USD
Fair value54.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown41.57+0.0% to today
2026-09-06Read Accumulation44.83-7.3% to today
2026-08-06Read Markup44.47-6.5% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution37.05+12.2% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
NMI Holdings, Inc. holds its Distribution at $41.57. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-24
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$41.57
Valuation
8.18 trailing · 7.52 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.53
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
NMI Holdings, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-24 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 29.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +23% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-24 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Mortgage Insurance Looks Cheap But We Pass
Picture a lender handing keys to a first-time buyer and quietly taking out insurance against the day rates rise or jobs vanish. NMI Holdings sits in that exact spot, yet the ethical screen blocks any further look because the sector itself sits on the prohibited list. That single filter ends the conversation before the numbers get a proper hearing.
The business shows a forward P/E of 8.0x, 54 percent profit margins and 16 percent return on equity while revenue edges up 6 percent a year. Analyst targets cluster around 48 against the current 43.01 price, but none of those figures matter once the sector rule has been triggered. Opportunity rating sits at none for this reason alone.
Housing cycles can turn fast and mortgage insurance books amplify the swings, so even a low multiple can mask peak earnings rather than signal a bargain. Currency and regulatory shifts add further noise that never reaches the headline numbers. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NMIH trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$41.57-7.3%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $46.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $46.
2026-08-06Markup · changed$44.47+20.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 20.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $46.
2026-07-18Distribution$37.05+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $46.
2026-07-03Distribution$37.05+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$37.05Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
