Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price1,148.00 GBp
Fair value574.00
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-06Read Distribution1,203.00-4.6% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup1,203.00-4.6% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
National Grid holds its Distribution at $1,148.00. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$1,148.00
Valuation
1,913.33 trailing · 1,293.49 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio 44.5%; Revenue purity 7.4%
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
44.54%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 44.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.10%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.86%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
7.41%
Below 5%
7.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
National Grid's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 45% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $574.00 fair value estimate.
Fair value range in GBp, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 50.0% above the base estimate.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 1,293.5x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 50% above our $574.00 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NG.L trades on LSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Distribution$1,148.00-4.6%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1379. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-09-06Distribution$1,203.00+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1379.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1379.
2026-07-18Markup$1,203.00+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1379.
2026-07-03Markup$1,203.00+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$1,203.00Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.