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The Screen · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
MRLNMerlin, Inc.
MRLN · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $173M
Merlin, Inc., an aerospace and defense technology company, develops AI-powered autonomous flight software and systems for aircraft in the United States and New Zealand.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
0.88 USD
Price as of 23 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 6 days ago
Screened 2026-10-23 · the tape above runs as of 02:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price0.88 USD at the 23 Oct 2026 close
Our ratingAvoid, current read distribution
Ethical screenDoes not pass
OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.03)
Last reviewed23 Oct 2026 (6 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 0.88 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 17.20, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.03, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price0.88 USD
Fair value17.20
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Distribution8.60-89.8% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Merlin, Inc. holds its Distribution at $0.88. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 25 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 25 days
Price at the screen
$0.88
Valuation
0.00 trailing · -20.17 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited sector: defense
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
163.14%
Below 5%
163.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Merlin, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in aerospace and defense, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when MRLN's ethical verdict changes
Today MRLN does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 825% discount to our $17.20 fair value, 91.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 824.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At -20.2x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. Our fair value sits at $17.20, below where it trades today.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MRLN trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25Distribution$1.29+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-10-18Distribution$1.29-30.6%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 30.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-10-02Distribution$1.86-78.4%Entry 6
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 78.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-09-05Distribution$8.60+0.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-08-06Distribution$8.60+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-07-18Distribution$8.60+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-07-03Distribution$8.60+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$8.60Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
The Insider Ledger · Form 4 Filings, As Filed
Most recent filings · MRLN
Date
Insider
Title
Type
Shares
Value
2026-03-16
GEORGE MATTHEW SPENCER
Chief Executive Officer
14,890,622
·
2025-12-09
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
4,328
$46,773
2025-12-09
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security