Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price236.70 EUR
Fair value270.67
Ethical score30.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-01Read Markdown234.70+0.9% to today
2026-08-01Read Markup234.70+0.9% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Accumulation234.70+0.9% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Thales SA holds its Markdown at $236.70. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 268 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 268 days
Price at the screen
$236.70
Valuation
29.15 trailing · 19.26 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.11
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity exclusion: FAIL
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity exclusion: FAIL
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Thales does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in an area the screen excludes: Business activity exclusion: FAIL, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · AFSC Investigate
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Documented on AFSC Investigate. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 14% discount to our $270.67 fair value, 7.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in EUR, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 14.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 18 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +25% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 19.3x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. Our fair value sits at $270.67, below where it trades today.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to France and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HO.PA trades on EURONEXT PARIS (the company is based in France). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$236.70+0.9%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $293.
2026-09-01Markdown · changed$234.70+0.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $293.
2026-08-01Markup · changed$234.70+0.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $293.
2026-07-18Accumulation$234.70+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $293.
2026-07-03Accumulation$234.70+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$234.70Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
What Holding Actually Paid · Price Plus Dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$221.97
+5.4%
$2.95
$1,067
+6.7%
2 months
$255.71
-8.5%
$2.95
$927
-7.3%
3 months
$244.17
-4.2%
$2.95
$970
-3.0%
6 months
$225.33
+3.9%
$2.95
$1,052
+5.2%
1 year
$245.28
-4.6%
$3.90
$970
-3.0%
2 years
$163.73
+42.9%
$7.60
$1,476
+47.6%
3 years
$123.27
+89.8%
$11.00
$1,987
+98.7%
5 years
$77.58
+201.6%
$16.50
$3,229
+222.9%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Ledger's Promise
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever HO.PA does next, these words stay.
Thales SA · HO.PA · Markdown · $236.70
Recorded 2026-09-21 · before the outcome · scored mechanically