PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in manufacture, distribution, and trading of cigarettes and other tobacco products in Indonesia and Internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
645.00 IDR
Screen close, 2026-09-21 · not a live quote Last reviewed 14 days ago
Screened 2026-09-21 · the tape above runs as of 11:17 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 645.00 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 1,024.33, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price645.00 IDR
Fair value1,024.33
Ethical score30.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution645.00+0.0% to today
2026-09-01Read Accumulation605.00+6.6% to today ✓
2026-08-01Read Distribution605.00+6.6% to today
2026-07-02Read Accumulation605.00+6.6% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
HM Sampoerna holds its Distribution at $645.00. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 31 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 31 days
Price at the screen
$645.00
Valuation
10.93 trailing · 9.66 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.57
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Tobacco — FAIL on business activity
Fail
Debt load
0.66%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
9.26%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 9.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.92%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.27%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
HM Sampoerna does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in tobacco, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 59% discount to our $1,024.33 fair value.
Fair value range in IDR, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 58.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +40% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 9.7x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. Our fair value sits at $1,024.33, below where it trades today.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Indonesia and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HMSP.JK trades on IDX (the company is based in Indonesia). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 6.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $851.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $851.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $851.
2026-07-18Accumulation$605.00+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $851.
2026-07-03Accumulation$605.00+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$605.00Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
What Holding Actually Paid · Price Plus Dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$687.93
-10.6%
$56.30
$976
-2.4%
2 months
$697.17
-11.8%
$56.30
$963
-3.7%
3 months
$706.40
-12.9%
$56.30
$950
-5.0%
6 months
$674.08
-8.8%
$56.30
$996
-0.4%
1 year
$562.17
+9.4%
$112.50
$1,294
+29.4%
2 years
$604.43
+1.8%
$112.50
$1,204
+20.4%
3 years
$748.82
-17.9%
$236.50
$1,137
+13.7%
5 years
$830.27
-25.9%
$299.80
$1,102
+10.2%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Ledger's Promise
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever HMSP.JK does next, these words stay.
HM Sampoerna · HMSP.JK · Distribution · $645.00
Recorded 2026-09-21 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
