Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price12.45 USD
Fair value14.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution12.45+0.0% to today
2026-08-30Read Markup13.07-4.7% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution13.29-6.3% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Golub Capital BDC, Inc. holds its Distribution at $12.45. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 77 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-23
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 77 days
Price at the screen
$12.45
Valuation
18.86 trailing · 9.80 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.42
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Golub Capital BDC, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 12.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Middle Market Lender Trips Our Ethical Red Line
Picture a fund that lends to mid-sized US firms the big banks ignore, taking floating rate debt and the odd equity slice in return. Golub Capital BDC does exactly that, yet it fails our ethical screen outright because the entire financial services sector sits on the prohibited list. That single rule ends the conversation before any numbers are weighed.
The figures do little to change the mind. Revenue has fallen 12 percent, return on equity sits at just 5 percent, and the forward multiple of 10.4 times offers thin compensation for thin returns and an unknown moat. Six analysts see fair value around 14 dollars against the current 13 dollar price, but the ethical block removes any interest regardless of that narrow gap.
Credit cycles, rising defaults and squeezed spreads remain live risks for any business development company, and the low return on equity already hints at limited resilience when conditions turn. The screen exists precisely to keep such exposures off the table.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GBDC trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-08-30Markup · changed$13.07+0.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-30Distribution$13.06-1.7%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-18Distribution$13.29+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 7%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-03Distribution$13.29+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$13.29Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
