Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price8.94 USD
Fair value9.00
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Markup8.09+10.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since October
2026-10-18Read Distribution8.09+10.5% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 6% slide in 7 days
2026-10-11Read Markup8.65+3.4% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after an 11% slide in 14 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution9.72-8.0% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $8.94. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 51 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 51 days
Price at the screen
$8.94
Valuation
0.00 trailing · 13.31 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.45
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Financial sector: banks
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
227.51%
Below 5%
227.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
First Guaranty Bancshares, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when FGBI's ethical verdict changes
Today FGBI does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 11% discount to our $9.00 fair value, weak competitive moat, 94.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 11.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 13.3x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. Our fair value sits at $9.00, below where it trades today. The weak moat is real, but quality alone does not make an expensive price cheap.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FGBI trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25Markup · changed$8.09+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-10-18Distribution · changed$8.09-6.5%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-10-11Markup · changed$8.65+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-10-02Distribution$8.65-11.0%Entry 6
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-08-29Distribution$9.72+0.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-07-28Distribution$9.72+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-07-18Distribution$9.72+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-07-03Distribution$9.72+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$9.72Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
The Insider Ledger · Form 4 Filings, As Filed
Most recent filings · FGBI
Date
Insider
Title
Type
Shares
Value
2026-06-30
Smith Edgar R. III
Dir, 10%
Purchase
74,846
$1
2026-04-30
REYNOLDS MARSHALL T
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
109,051
$999,998
2026-04-30
SMITH EDGAR R. III
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
109,051
$999,998
2026-04-30
MCANALLY BRUCE
Director
109,051
$999,998
2026-03-31
REYNOLDS MARSHALL T
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
32,176
$250,008
2026-03-31
SMITH EDGAR R. III
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security