Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price2.51 USD
Fair value2.54
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution2.51+0.0% to today
2026-08-25Read Markup2.76-9.1% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution2.07+21.3% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Coty Inc. holds its Distribution at $2.51. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 19 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 19 days
Price at the screen
$2.51
Valuation
N/A trailing · 9.81 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.95
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
35.65%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 35.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
6.58%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.28%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Coty's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 36% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 1.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Fading beauty sales leave little room for recovery
Picture a once-glamorous beauty counter where fewer shoppers stop and even fewer buy. Coty faces exactly that reality, with revenue slipping one percent and both profit margins and return on equity deep in negative territory. The forward earnings multiple sits at just 7.6 times, yet the business shows no clear path to sustained improvement and analysts rate the shares a hold with only modest upside to their median target.
We pass because the thin margin of safety to fair value does not offset the weak operating trends. Prestige fragrances and mass-market cosmetics both compete in crowded markets where pricing power has eroded and consumer spending can shift quickly. A low multiple on declining earnings often signals a value trap rather than an opportunity.
The ethical screen raises no concerns, which is welcome, but it cannot repair shrinking top-line momentum or the lack of a visible moat. Currency moves and retail channel shifts add further uncertainty that the numbers do not yet reflect.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
COTY trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Distribution · changed$2.51-9.1%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-08-25Markup · changed$2.76+5.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-07-25Distribution$2.61+26.1%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 26.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-07-18Distribution$2.07+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 61%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $3.
2026-07-03Distribution$2.07+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$2.07Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
