Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price25.26 USD
Fair value34.00
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-24Read Markup21.36+18.3% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup after a 9% slide in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown23.45+7.7% to today Markup gives way to Markdown
2026-07-02Read Markup23.80+6.1% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Cadeler A/S holds its Markup at $25.26. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 50 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 50 days
Price at the screen
$25.26
Valuation
10.02 trailing · N/A forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.74
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
58.37%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 58.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
5.45%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 5.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.28%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Cadeler A/S's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 58% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when CDLR's ethical verdict changes
Today CDLR does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 35% discount to our $34.00 fair value, 21.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 34.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Offshore wind builder masks heavy debt burden
Cadeler installs giant turbines for the expanding offshore wind sector, where each new farm project moves large pieces of kit across rough seas. The numbers look punchy, with revenue up 90%, a 40% profit margin and 19% ROE, yet the shares sit well below the single analyst target of $34.
We pass for one straightforward reason that has nothing to do with growth or margins. The stock fails our ethical screen on debt ratio, and that screen exists to keep us out of businesses that lean too hard on borrowed money no matter how fast they are expanding.
Heavy debt can magnify returns when projects land on time, yet it leaves the firm exposed if rates stay high or installation schedules slip. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CDLR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-24Markup · changed$21.36-1.8%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%.
2026-10-14Markdown$21.75-7.2%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$23.45+0.6%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%.
2026-08-24Markup$23.32+0.5%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%.
2026-07-24Markup$23.21-2.5%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%.
2026-07-18Markup$23.80+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%.
2026-07-03Markup$23.80+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$23.80Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
