Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price606.00 GBp
Fair value405.18
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown606.00+0.0% to today
2026-08-22Read Distribution652.00-7.1% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markdown652.00-7.1% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
A.G. BARR p.l.c. holds its Markdown at $606.00. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$606.00
Valuation
1,442.86 trailing · 1,169.00 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.35
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: alcohol
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: alcohol
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
A.G. BARR p.l.c. does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in alcohol, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in GBp, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 33.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +32% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to United Kingdom and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BAG.L trades on LSE (the company is based in United Kingdom). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$606.00-7.1%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $786. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $786.
2026-07-22Markdown$652.00+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $786.
2026-07-18Markdown$652.00+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $786.
2026-07-03Markdown$652.00+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$652.00Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
What Holding Actually Paid · Price Plus Dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$608.00
+6.6%
·
$1,066
+6.6%
2 months
$645.34
+0.4%
$15.27
$1,028
+2.8%
3 months
$662.84
-2.2%
$15.27
$1,001
+0.1%
6 months
$625.85
+3.5%
$15.27
$1,060
+6.0%
1 year
$679.80
-4.7%
$18.71
$981
-1.9%
2 years
$604.67
+7.2%
$35.57
$1,131
+13.1%
3 years
$496.60
+30.5%
$50.62
$1,407
+40.7%
5 years
$531.22
+22.0%
$85.72
$1,381
+38.1%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Ledger's Promise
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever BAG.L does next, these words stay.
A.G. BARR p.l.c. · BAG.L · Markdown · $606.00
Recorded 2026-09-21 · before the outcome · scored mechanically