Axsome Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, develops and delivers novel therapies for the management of central nervous system (CNS) disorders in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
205.49 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-21 · not a live quote Last reviewed 14 days ago
Screened 2026-09-21 · the tape above runs as of 03:09 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 205.49 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 195.37, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price205.49 USD
Fair value195.37
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-22Read Distribution213.68-3.8% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup255.17-19.5% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Axsome Therapeutics Inc holds its Distribution at $205.49. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 49 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 49 days
Price at the screen
$205.49
Valuation
N/A trailing · 40.82 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.71
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
31.62%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 31.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
79.36%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 79.4% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Axsome Therapeutics's business is fine, but its receivables are about 79% of its assets, well over the ~49% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 4.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 21 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +36% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
New CNS Drug Hits Market Yet Losses Mount
Picture a patient in need of fresh CNS relief and a company racing to deliver it. Axsome brings Auvelity to market with revenue climbing 57 percent, yet it still posts a 27 percent negative profit margin and a startling negative 349 percent return on equity.
We pass. The shares trade at 230 dollars against a 201 dollar fair value, a forward multiple of 39 times earnings, and no margin of safety. Narrow moat plus ongoing cash burn leaves little room for error despite the strong buy chorus from analysts.
Risk sits in the valuation itself. Any slip in uptake or fresh clinical setbacks would punish the premium price quickly in a sector where profits remain distant. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: as a biotechnology name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AXSM trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Distribution$205.49+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 43% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 125%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $276. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-09-24Distribution$205.49-3.8%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 43% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 125%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $276. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 43% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 125%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $276. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-22Markup$230.00-9.9%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 9.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 43% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 125%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $276.
2026-07-18Markup$255.17+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 43% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 125%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $276.
2026-07-03Markup$255.17+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$255.17Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
