An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Axsome Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, develops and delivers novel therapies for the management of central nervous system (CNS) disorders in the United States.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $213.68
Axsome Therapeutics Inc holds its Distribution at $213.68.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-13
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 5 days
Price
$213.68
Valuation
N/A trailing · 41.99 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.73
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$213.68
N/A P/E · 41.99 fwd
Our fair value
$193.98
9% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$276.00
+29% to current
Target low $246.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $380.00
▲ current $213.68 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$213.68
you are here
Conservative
$193.98
-9%
Analyst avg
$276.00
+29%
Our fair value
$193.98
-9%
Analyst high
$380.00
+78%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
45.50%
Profit margin
-24.68%
Debt to equity
269.73
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 21 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its accounts receivable. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 31.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 79.4% of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
New CNS Drug Hits Market Yet Losses Mount
Picture a patient in need of fresh CNS relief and a company racing to deliver it. Axsome brings Auvelity to market with revenue climbing 57 percent, yet it still posts a 27 percent negative profit margin and a startling negative 349 percent return on equity.
We pass. The shares trade at 230 dollars against a 201 dollar fair value, a forward multiple of 39 times earnings, and no margin of safety. Narrow moat plus ongoing cash burn leaves little room for error despite the strong buy chorus from analysts.
Risk sits in the valuation itself. Any slip in uptake or fresh clinical setbacks would punish the premium price quickly in a sector where profits remain distant. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: as a biotechnology name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in AXSM's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 9.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 43% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 125%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $276. Entered 2026-07-22 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-22Markup$230.00-9.9%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 9.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 43% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 125%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $276.
2026-07-18Markup$255.17+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 43% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 125%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (21 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $276.
2026-07-03Markup$255.17+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$255.17Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
