NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,250+6.34%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 22:36 UTC
The Screen · Technology · Electronic Components
Amphenol
APH · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $201.6B · 170,000 employees
Amphenol Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets electrical, electronic, and fiber optic connectors in the United States, China, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
81.76 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 22:36 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Amphenol holds its Distribution at $81.76. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 6 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 6 days
Price at the screen
$81.76
Valuation
40.88 trailing · 25.23 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.24
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.78%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.84%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
43.73%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 43.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 12% discount to our $91.62 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 55.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 12.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Amphenol's Debt Drags Despite Strong Growth
Imagine a world where connectivity is key, and Amphenol is the silent backbone, providing the connectors that make it happen. With a robust 55% revenue growth and a healthy profit margin of 18%, Amphenol stands out for its role in the technology and electronic components sector. Despite its position in a critical industry and a forward P/E of 23.8x, which suggests a reasonable valuation, the company's debt ratio fails our ethical screen.
While Amphenol's ROE of 38% indicates strong returns on equity and its moderate moat suggests it has some competitive advantage, the ethical failing on debt ratio is a significant red flag. Despite 17 analysts giving it a strong buy consensus with a median target of $197, the underlying financial health concerns can't be ignored. This is particularly important in an industry where stability and trust are paramount.
Risk lies in Amphenol's debt levels, which are high enough to fail our ethical screening process. This is not a matter of business performance but of financial prudence and sustainability. Given this, despite the attractive growth and potential, our analysis leads us to avoid Amphenol. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
APH trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-28Markup$153.11+0.3%Entry 13
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182.
2026-07-28Markup$152.67+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$152.67+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$152.67+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$152.67+1.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$151.20+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup · changed$151.20+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Distribution$151.20+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Distribution$151.20+8.9%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 8.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182.
2026-07-18Distribution$138.81+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.