Framework Journal · one stock, one dated entry

Recorded 2026-07-24 · Permanent

An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.

In plain words · Amphenol Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets electrical, electronic, and fiber optic connectors in the United States, China, and internationally.

The label
Markup

read at $152.67

Amphenol holds its Markup at $152.67.

PHINPOOPSC
  • PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
  • INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
  • POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
  • OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
  • SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
  • edge confirmed
  • edge broken
  • edge forming

Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.

The investor read · the season, not the day

As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
PhaseMarkup
Quantitative stateElevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 7 days
Price$152.67
Valuation43.87 trailing · 26.14 forward price to earnings
Values screenFAIL · score 10.0
Beta1.24

The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth

Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 12% discount to our $170.93 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 58.40% revenue growth.

Read at
$152.67
43.87 P/E · 26.14 fwd
Our fair value
$170.93
12% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$190.00
+24% to current
Target low $165.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $215.00
▲ current $152.67 · | average target

Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going

$230$124$18TODAY5y agoPROJECTIONAnalyst high$215.00 +43%Analyst avg$190.00 +27%Our fair value$170.93 +14%Conservative$148.50 -1%

The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street

Current
$152.67
you are here
Conservative
$148.50
-3%
Analyst avg
$190.00
+24%
Our fair value
$170.93
+12%
Analyst high
$215.00
+41%

Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.

Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.

Revenue growth58.40%
Profit margin17.24%
Debt to equity133.05
Analyst consensusBuy · 18 covering

Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.

The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English

It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:

The common standard · AAOIFI
Used by most halal investing apps
✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard · asset-based
The one Titan applies
✗ DOES NOT PASS

Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.

What these two standards are, and how they differ →

  • Business activity Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. Pass
  • Debt load Interest-bearing debt is 42.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Against market value it is 10.0%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it. Divergent
  • Interest-bearing cash Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.8% of assets, under the one-third limit. Pass
  • Receivables Money owed to the company is 43.7% of assets, under the 49% limit. Pass
  • Revenue purity Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line. Pass

Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.

The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean

Tiny plugs keep the world wired yet debt blocks the door

Every connector Amphenol sells sits inside phones, servers and aircraft that cannot run without them. The firm posts 58 percent revenue growth, 17 percent profit margins and 37 percent ROE, yet it still fails our ethical screen on its debt ratio. Analysts love the name and set targets well above the current price, but that does not move our verdict.

We pass because the ethical failure is clear and non-negotiable. Strong returns and a moderate moat do not offset the leverage issue that our screen flags. The 13 percent margin of safety to our fair value looks thin once that red line is crossed.

High growth can mask rising debt until rates or demand turn. A cyclical slowdown in electronics would expose the leverage quickly and leave little room for error. Analysis, not advice.

The fundamentals · plain-English read
Forward P/E26.1x
cheap for a company growing this fast
Trailing P/E43.9x
expensive — the price assumes strong growth ahead
Revenue growth58.4%
growing very fast
Profit margin17.2%
healthy profit margins
Return on equity36.8%
an exceptional return on shareholder capital
Debt to equity1.33
a meaningful debt load worth watching
Current ratio1.71
healthy short-term liquidity
Beta1.24
moves a little more than the market
Market cap$187.8B
Employees170,000

The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.

Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.

Latest news · what the market is reading on APH

Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference — not our reporting, not advice.

Related securities · others in APH's space worth a look

Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.

Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are

APH trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.

The trader read · the latest dated commentary

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-07-28 · Markup

The dated journal · newest first, never edited

2026-07-28 Markup $152.67 +0.0% Entry 12

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-27 Markup $152.67 +0.0% Entry 11

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-26 Markup $152.67 +0.0% Entry 10

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-25 Markup $152.67 +1.0% Entry 9

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-24 Markup $151.20 +0.0% Entry 8

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-23 Markup · changed $151.20 +0.0% Entry 7

The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-22 Distribution $151.20 +0.0% Entry 6

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-21 Distribution $151.20 +8.9% Entry 5

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 8.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182.

2026-07-18 Distribution $138.81 +0.0% Entry 4

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182.

2026-07-17 Distribution $138.81 +0.0% Entry 3

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182.

Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.

The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed

Most recent filings · APH
DateInsiderTitleTypeSharesValue
2026-05-05 NORWITT RICHARD ADAM Chief Executive Officer 130,775 $2,925,764
2026-05-05 NORWITT RICHARD ADAM Chief Executive Officer 130,775 $18,709,066
2026-02-18 D'AMICO LANCE E General Counsel 50,000 $1,127,625
2026-02-18 LAMPO CRAIG A Chief Financial Officer 100,000 $2,199,500
2026-02-18 D'AMICO LANCE E General Counsel 50,000 $7,494,155
2026-02-18 LAMPO CRAIG A Chief Financial Officer 100,000 $14,998,130
2026-02-12 NORWITT RICHARD ADAM Chief Executive Officer 608,333 $13,609,930
2026-02-12 NORWITT RICHARD ADAM Chief Executive Officer 608,333 $89,577,563
2026-02-05 LIVINGSTON ROBERT A Director 10,000 $1,285,080
2026-02-04 IVAS MICHAEL R Officer 25,000 $559,312

Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.

What holding actually paid · price plus dividends

If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
PeriodPrice thenPrice returnDivs per share$1,000 becameTotal return
1 month $122.47 +22.6% · $1,226 +22.6%
2 months $140.75 +6.6% · $1,066 +6.6%
3 months $131.21 +14.4% $0.25 $1,146 +14.6%
6 months $138.55 +8.3% $0.50 $1,087 +8.7%
1 year $91.84 +63.4% $0.83 $1,643 +64.3%
2 years $65.86 +127.9% $1.44 $2,301 +130.1%
3 years $38.14 +293.6% $1.87 $3,985 +298.5%
5 years $32.69 +359.1% $2.62 $4,671 +367.1%

Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever APH does next, these words stay.

Amphenol · APH · Markup · $152.67
Recorded 2026-07-24 · before the outcome · scored mechanically

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