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The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Brewers
Molson Coors Beverage Company
TAP · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $6.6B · 16,200 employees
Molson Coors Beverage Company manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells beer and other malt beverage products in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
37.53 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-18 · not a live quote Last reviewed 4 days ago
Screened 2026-09-18 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 37.53 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 44.60, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price37.53 USD
Fair value44.60
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-14Read Distribution38.44-2.4% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup39.06-3.9% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Molson Coors Beverage Company holds its Markdown at $37.53. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$37.53
Valuation
N/A trailing · 7.64 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.42
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Brewers
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 19% discount to our $44.60 fair value, weak competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 18.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 21 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +20% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Beer Maker Fails on Both Books and Ethics
Walk into any local and the taps often carry Molson Coors brands, yet the company is losing money on almost every pint sold. We pass because the business activity screen blocks alcohol producers outright, and the figures give no reason to argue the point. Revenue inches up just 2 percent while margins sit at minus 19 percent and return on equity is minus 18 percent.
The forward multiple looks cheap at 8.2 times, but that only reflects peak-cycle earnings that are already sliding. A weak moat leaves it exposed to craft rivals and shifting tastes, and twenty-one analysts see little upside beyond a modest hold rating near current prices.
Currency swings, shifting regulations on alcohol, and thin cash generation add real downside that the low multiple does not offset. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TAP trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $46.
2026-08-14Markup$42.41+8.6%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $46.
2026-07-18Markup$39.06+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $46.
2026-07-03Markup$39.06+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$39.06Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
