Shopify Inc., a commerce technology company, provides tools to start, scale, market, and run a business of various sizes in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America.
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Shopify Inc holds its Markdown at $126.60. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 22 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 22 days
Price at the screen
$126.60
Valuation
85.54 trailing · 51.47 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
2.62
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
1.24%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 1.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
6.42%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.87%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.86%
Below 5%
Only 2.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 5.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 47 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +38% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Shopify's Global Commerce Reach Misses Valuation Mark
Imagine every small business from the corner store to the online mega-shop using a single platform to manage their sales - that's the vision of Shopify. This Canadian commerce-tech giant offers a suite of tools that help businesses of all sizes to start, scale, and manage their operations globally. Its platform has expanded beyond borders, making Shopify a standout in the e-commerce space. Why it stands out is its ability to provide a unified solution to a fragmented market, with revenue growth hitting a robust 34%.
However, despite its global reach and strong growth, the current price of $149.80 is lofty compared to our fair value estimate of $119.39, indicating a lack of a margin of safety. The forward P/E of 61.1x, while reflecting the market's optimism, also suggests that investors are paying a hefty premium for future earnings. Risks include a narrow moat, which means competitors could disrupt Shopify's market position, and the high consensus target from analysts might not account for potential market volatility.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SHOP trades on NASDAQ (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-05Markdown · changed$149.80+31.7%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 31.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148.
2026-08-05Markup$113.75+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-04Markup$113.75+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup$113.75+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Markup$113.75+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Markup$113.75+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Markup$113.75+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Markup$113.75+5.1%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$108.24+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148.
2026-07-03Markup$108.24+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
