Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-10
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price68.53 USD
Fair value82.00
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-30Read Distribution66.94+2.4% to today
2026-07-03Read Markup72.19-5.1% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Altria holds its Markup at $68.53. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 17 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 17 days
Price at the screen
$68.53
Valuation
14.43 trailing · 11.69 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.49
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Tobacco
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 20% discount to our $82.00 fair value, 1.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 19.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +4% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Marlboro's Smokescreen: A Risky Gamble
Imagine a company that, for every puff of satisfaction, inhales a cloud of ethical controversy. Altria, the maker of Marlboro, is that company. Despite a forward P/E of 11.4x, which might appear enticing amidst the market's froth, the numbers can't mask the ethical cloud hanging over the business.
Why it stands out, or rather, why we pass. The market consensus is a lukewarm hold, with a median target of $71, which is shy of our $82 fair value assessment, suggesting a 22% margin of safety. Yet, the company fails our ethical screen due to its core business activities, which is a knockout punch for us at Titan Protect. A 1% revenue growth and a 39% profit margin, while respectable, are not enough to offset the ethical failings.
Risk sits squarely on ethical grounds, and it's a high one. The market may price in the cyclical nature of the tobacco industry, but our ethical compass steers clear of businesses that can't pass our screen. This is not a cyclical value trap but a principled avoidance, and that's a risk we're not willing to take. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MO trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $70.
2026-07-30Markup$72.99+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $69. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Markup$72.99+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $69. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$72.99+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $69. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$72.99+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $69. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$72.99-1.6%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $69. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$74.21+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $69. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$74.21+2.8%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $69. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$72.19+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $69.
2026-07-03Markup$72.19+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.