Framework Journal · one stock, one dated entry

Recorded 2026-07-24 · Permanent

Philip Morris International logoPhilip Morris International PM

Outside both standards

An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.

In plain words · Philip Morris International Inc.

The label
Markup

read at $193.00

Philip Morris International holds its Markup at $193.00.

PHINPOOPSC
  • PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
  • INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
  • POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
  • OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
  • SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
  • edge confirmed
  • edge broken
  • edge forming

Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.

The investor read · the season, not the day

As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
PhaseMarkup
Quantitative stateConsolidating, no directional conviction, held for 10 days
Price$193.00
Valuation26.51 trailing · 21.12 forward price to earnings
Values screenFAIL · score 10.0
Beta0.41

The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth

Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 2% discount to our $195.90 fair value, 10.40% revenue growth.

Read at
$193.00
26.51 P/E · 21.12 fwd
Our fair value
$195.90
2% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$209.00
+8% to current
Target low $171.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $221.00
▲ current $193.00 · | average target

Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going

$232$149$67TODAY5y agoPROJECTIONAnalyst high$221.00 +21%Analyst avg$209.00 +14%Our fair value$195.90 +7%Conservative$153.90 -16%

The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street

Current
$193.00
you are here
Conservative
$153.90
-20%
Analyst avg
$209.00
+8%
Our fair value
$195.90
+2%
Analyst high
$221.00
+15%

Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.

Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.

Revenue growth10.40%
Profit margin25.56%
Analyst consensusBuy · 15 covering

Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.

The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English

This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:

The common standard · AAOIFI
Used by most halal investing apps
✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard · asset-based
The one Titan applies
✗ DOES NOT PASS

Why it fails. The problem is its business activity screen. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.

What these two standards are, and how they differ →

  • Business activity Business activity: Tobacco Fail

Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.

The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean

Tobacco profits still fail the ethics test

Walk into any corner shop from Manila to Moscow and the familiar packs sit right by the till. Philip Morris keeps selling them, along with newer heated and nicotine products, at a 27 percent profit margin and 9 percent revenue growth. The shares trade at 21 times forward earnings, almost exactly at our fair value.

We pass for one clear reason. The business activity screen rules out tobacco outright, regardless of how defensive the cash flows look or how many analysts still rate the stock a buy with a 200 dollar median target. Numbers alone do not override that filter.

Margins this high reflect an industry built on addiction, not innovation, and the ethical line exists to keep that reality front of mind. Analysis, not advice.

The fundamentals · plain-English read
Forward P/E21.1x
expensive even after accounting for its growth
Trailing P/E26.5x
a premium valuation
Revenue growth10.4%
steady growth
Profit margin25.6%
healthy profit margins
Current ratio0.98
below 1 — short-term bills exceed liquid assets
Beta0.41
barely tracks the market's swings
Market cap$300.8B
Employees84,900

The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.

Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.

Latest news · what the market is reading on PM

Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference — not our reporting, not advice.

Related securities · others in PM's space worth a look

Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.

Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are

PM trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.

The trader read · the latest dated commentary

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $193. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-07-22 · Markup

The dated journal · newest first, never edited

2026-07-22 Markup $192.98 +0.0% Entry 9

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $193. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-21 Markup $192.98 +0.0% Entry 8

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $193. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-20 Markup $192.98 +0.0% Entry 7

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $193. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-19 Markup $192.98 +8.2% Entry 6

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $193. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-18 Markup $178.29 +0.0% Entry 5

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $193. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-17 Markup $178.29 +0.0% Entry 4

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $193. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-16 Markup $178.29 +0.0% Entry 3

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $193. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-03 Markup $178.29 +0.0% Entry 2

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.

2026-07-02 Markup $178.29 Entry 1

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.

Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.

The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed

Most recent filings · PM
DateInsiderTitleTypeSharesValue
2026-05-06 CALANTZOPOULOS ANDRE Chairman of the Board 1,119 $190,152
2026-05-06 HARKER VICTORIA D Director 1,119 $190,152
2026-05-06 GEISSLER WERNER Director 1,119 $190,152
2026-05-06 HOOK LISA A. Director 1,119 $190,152
2026-05-06 BOUGH BONIN Director 1,119 $190,152
2026-05-06 COMBES MICHEL Director 1,119 $190,152
2026-05-06 POLET ROBERT Director 1,119 $190,152
2026-05-06 YANAI SHLOMO Director 1,119 $190,152
2026-05-06 MORPARIA KALPANA Director 1,119 $190,152
2026-02-20 DOBROWOLSKI REGINALDO Officer 6,000 $1,100,880

Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.

The political ledger · congressional disclosures

Disclosures naming PM
DatePoliticianPartyTypeAmount
7 May2026 Ro Khanna Democrat sell 1K–15K
26 May2026 Dave McCormick Republican sell 100K–250K
26 May2026 Dave McCormick Republican sell 100K–250K
2026-05-08 Bill Keating Democrat Purchase 1K–15K
2026-04-24 Ro Khanna Democrat Purchase 1K–15K

What holding actually paid · price plus dividends

If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
PeriodPrice thenPrice returnDivs per share$1,000 becameTotal return
1 month $182.11 +0.3% · $1,003 +0.3%
2 months $160.45 +13.9% · $1,139 +13.9%
3 months $170.48 +7.2% $1.47 $1,080 +8.0%
6 months $148.26 +23.2% $2.94 $1,252 +25.2%
1 year $172.90 +5.7% $5.76 $1,090 +9.0%
2 years $95.83 +90.7% $11.11 $2,023 +102.3%
3 years $81.02 +125.5% $16.28 $2,456 +145.6%
5 years $77.95 +134.4% $26.29 $2,681 +168.1%

Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever PM does next, these words stay.

Philip Morris International · PM · Markup · $193.00
Recorded 2026-07-24 · before the outcome · scored mechanically

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