An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Grand Canyon Education, Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $140.44
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. holds its Markup at $140.44.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days
Price
$140.44
Valuation
17.60 trailing · 12.58 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.57
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$140.44
17.60 P/E · 12.58 fwd
Our fair value
$211.63
51% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$200.00
+42% to current
Target low $185.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $230.00
▲ current $140.44 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$140.44
you are here
Conservative
$167.45
+19%
Analyst avg
$200.00
+42%
Our fair value
$211.63
+51%
Analyst high
$230.00
+64%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
6.70%
Profit margin
19.54%
Debt to equity
14.96
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 3 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Education Services Firm Shows Strong Returns But We Pass
Every student signing into an online degree course depends on unseen systems for enrolment, payments and support that keep the university running. Grand Canyon Education supplies exactly those services across technology platforms and academic administration. The business delivers 7% revenue growth, 20% profit margins and 30% return on equity at a forward multiple of 12.6 times, with our fair value implying a 51% margin of safety and a clean ethical screen.
Those figures look attractive on paper, yet the opportunity rating stays at none. The moat remains unknown, analyst coverage is thin and the sector carries ongoing regulatory scrutiny that can shift quickly. Price sits at 140 dollars against a median target of 200 dollars, but absence of a clear edge keeps us on the sidelines.
Risk sits in potential policy changes around for-profit education and the lack of visibility on durable competitive advantage. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
LOPE trades on Nasdaq. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $214. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markdown
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markdown$147.49+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $214.
2026-07-03Markdown$147.49+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$147.49Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming LOPE
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
27 May2026
John Boozman
Republican
sell
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$161.96
-6.7%
·
$933
-6.7%
2 months
$166.52
-9.2%
·
$908
-9.2%
3 months
$164.15
-7.9%
·
$921
-7.9%
6 months
$158.15
-4.4%
·
$956
-4.4%
1 year
$183.45
-17.6%
·
$824
-17.6%
2 years
$139.67
+8.2%
·
$1,082
+8.2%
3 years
$105.89
+42.8%
·
$1,428
+42.8%
5 years
$93.55
+61.6%
·
$1,616
+61.6%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever LOPE does next, these words stay.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. · LOPE · Markup · $140.44
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
