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The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Confectioners
Hershey Company (The)
HSY · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $34.6B · 17,550 employees
The Hershey Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of confectionery products and pantry items in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
167.90 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-21 · not a live quote
Screened 2026-09-21 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 167.90 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 198.68, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price167.90 USD
Fair value198.68
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-01Read Accumulation186.46-10.0% to today
2026-08-01Read Distribution180.19-6.8% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup184.58-9.0% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Hershey Company (The) holds its Markdown at $167.90. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$167.90
Valuation
23.56 trailing · 17.45 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.10
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
41.76%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 41.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.28%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.05%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.30%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 18% discount to our $198.68 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 6.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 18.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 21 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +19% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Sweet bars cannot hide rising debt
A Hershey bar still sells at the checkout counter, yet the balance sheet reveals debt levels that fail our ethical screen outright. We pass on the name despite 11% revenue growth, a 23% ROE and a forward P/E of 17.3x. The narrow moat and analyst target of 208 do not offset the debt ratio breach.
Risk sits in the leverage itself, which leaves little room for cocoa price spikes or margin pressure at the current 9% profit margin. Even with an 18% gap to our fair value the ethical failure rules it out.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HSY trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (23 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $217.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (23 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $217.
2026-07-18Markup$184.58+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (23 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $217.
2026-07-03Markup$184.58+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$184.58Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.