Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price116.74 USD
Fair value117.06
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-03Read Distribution122.69-4.8% to today ✓
2026-07-30Read Markup130.52-10.6% to today
2026-07-18Read Distribution124.22-6.0% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Duke Energy holds its Markdown at $116.74. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 7 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 7 days
Price at the screen
$116.74
Valuation
17.58 trailing · 16.28 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.36
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
46.42%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 46.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
6.58%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.29%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.16%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 0% discount to our $117.06 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 1.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 0.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 18 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Too much debt sinks this utility stock
Power reaches every home yet Duke Energy trades above our fair value with a negative margin of safety. The ethical screen fails on its debt ratio, and that alone rules it out for us regardless of the regulated cash flows.
Revenue growth sits at 11 percent with a 16 percent profit margin and 10 percent ROE, yet the forward multiple of 17.4 times leaves little room for error. A narrow moat and regulated status offer stability, but the balance sheet leverage overrides those comforts.
Analysts like the name and point to a $138 target, yet high debt in a rising rate world creates real downside. We pass. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DUK trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $139.
2026-08-04Markup$130.52+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $139. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup$130.52+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $139. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Markup$130.52+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $139. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Markup$130.52+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $139. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Markup$130.52+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $139. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Markup · changed$130.52+0.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $139. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Distribution$130.52+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $139. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Distribution$130.52+5.1%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $139.
2026-07-18Distribution$124.22+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $139.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
