Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price127.53 USD
Fair value113.18
Ethical score88.5/100
RatingOPPORTUNITY
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-05Read Accumulation134.89-5.5% to today
2026-08-04Read Distribution120.26+6.0% to today
2026-07-25Read Markup120.26+6.0% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
ConocoPhillips holds its Distribution at $127.53. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$127.53
Valuation
16.87 trailing · 13.41 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 88.5
Beta
0.13
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
19.23%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 19.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.94%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.10%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.53%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades above our $113.18 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 35.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 11.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 24 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +14% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
ConocoPhillips, Undervalued Oil & Gas Dynamo
Imagine the global oil and gas industry as a seasoned marathon runner - it's enduring and has been around for a long time. ConocoPhillips, firmly in the lead pack, is not just keeping pace but also showing impressive growth, with revenue expanding 36%. The company's operations span across Alaska, Lower 48, Canada, and international segments, exploring and producing a diverse basket of hydrocarbons, from crude oil to LNG. It stands out for its robust profit margin of 14% and a return on equity of 14%, reflecting a well-oiled machine.
However, the market is pricing ConocoPhillips at a forward P/E of 14.3x, which is below our fair value estimate of $112.68, indicating a discount of 16%. With 24 analysts chiming in with a 'buy' consensus and a median target of $146, there seems to be a collective bullish sentiment. Yet, we must tread carefully considering the cyclical nature of the industry. The low P/E during peak earnings could be a cyclical value trap, not a bargain as the sector downturns may render current earnings unsustainable.
Risk is present, particularly with the company's exposure to the volatile oil and gas markets, and the cyclical nature of the industry. While it has passed our ethical screen, investors should be mindful of the sector's ups and downs, as the current valuation may not fully account for future industry cycles. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
COP trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 17.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $142.
2026-08-06Distribution$115.04-4.3%Entry 12
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-05Distribution$120.26+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup$120.26+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Markup$120.26+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Markup$120.26+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Markup$120.26+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Markup$120.26+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$120.26+2.7%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $142.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.