Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price19.66 USD
Fair value17.15
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-25Read Accumulation18.17+8.2% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup14.78+33.0% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Cmb.Tech NV holds its Accumulation at $19.66. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 24 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 24 days
Price at the screen
$19.66
Valuation
6.64 trailing · 12.74 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.17
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
128.02%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 128.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
3.38%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $17.15 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 81.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 12.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Energy shipper looks cheap but carries heavy baggage
Picture a fleet of tankers chasing oil-price spikes one year and idling the next. CMB.Tech shows 121% revenue growth and a 25% profit margin, yet we pass. The forward multiple sits at just 10x and fair value offers only a slim buffer above the current price, but the business sits in a deeply cyclical trade where peak earnings often produce exactly this kind of low multiple.
The ethical screen fails on debt levels and the moat is rated weak, so even the 17% ROE does not compensate. Four analysts see a median target of $20, yet that optimism rests on the same commodity cycle that has crushed similar operators in past downturns.
High leverage leaves little room when rates or volumes turn, and the value-trap warning is clear: a low multiple on peak earnings is rarely a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CMBT trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 21.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 47% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-25Markup$14.96+1.2%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 47% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-18Markup$14.78+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 47% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-03Markup$14.78+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$14.78Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
