Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price13.38 USD
Fair value24.59
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-24Read Markdown12.90+3.7% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution14.64-8.6% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Central Puerto S.A. holds its Accumulation at $13.38. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 169 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 169 days
Price at the screen
$13.38
Valuation
6.19 trailing · 7.97 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
-0.22
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
23,906.44%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 23,906.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
16,382.66%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 16,382.7% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 84% discount to our $24.59 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 224.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 83.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +79% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Argentine Power Utility Trips on Debt Screen
Every time the grid hums in Buenos Aires the cash keeps flowing, yet Central Puerto still fails the one test that matters most. Revenue growth sits at 63 percent and margins reach 37 percent, but the ethical screen flags the debt ratio straight away. We pass for that reason alone, regardless of the 8.6 times forward earnings or the moderate moat.
The 19 percent return on equity and 68 percent gap to our fair value of 24 dollars might tempt some screens, yet none of those figures override the balance sheet weakness. Four analysts see a median target near 23 dollars, yet the debt load keeps the name off limits.
High leverage in a utility with currency and regulatory exposure creates real downside that cheap multiples cannot offset. The low price reflects that risk, not an opportunity. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CEPU trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-24Markdown · changed$12.90-9.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-07-24Distribution$14.27-2.5%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-07-18Distribution$14.64+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-07-03Distribution$14.64+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$14.64Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
