NAS10030,482+2.83%S&P7,765+1.49%GOLD$4,355−0.66%BTC$85,266VIX14.87+0.41%live tape · as of 09:00 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
Builders FirstSource
BLDR · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $6.3B · 28,000 employees
Builders FirstSource, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials for professional builders in new residential construction and repair, and remodeling in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
58.52 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-21 · not a live quote
Screened 2026-09-21 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 58.52 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 59.37, over the last year.
Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-08-24
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price58.52 USD
Fair value59.37
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-23Read Markup72.51-19.3% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution73.64-20.5% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Builders FirstSource holds its Markdown at $58.52. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 11 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 11 days
Price at the screen
$58.52
Valuation
64.10 trailing · 13.20 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.41
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
45.39%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 45.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.06%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 2% discount to our $59.37 fair value, weak competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 1.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 21 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +38% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Housing Supplier Hits the Cycle Peak
When new homes stop rising fast the firms that cut the lumber and frame the walls feel the drop first. We pass on this name because revenue already fell 10 percent while the balance sheet carries debt that fails our ethical screen outright.
Forward earnings trade at 12 times yet margins sit at just 2 percent and return on equity is a thin 7 percent. In a cyclical building-products business that low multiple often marks the top of the cycle rather than a bargain, especially with a weak moat and no durable edge.
Analyst targets may look tempting but the combination of fading demand and leverage makes the risk clear. The market is pricing in a recovery that may still be some way off. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BLDR trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-23Markup · changed$72.51-2.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $98.
2026-07-23Distribution$74.26+0.8%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $98.
2026-07-18Distribution$73.64+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $98.
2026-07-03Distribution$73.64+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$73.64Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
