Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price14.83 USD
Fair value15.00
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-19Read Accumulation14.80+0.2% to today ✓
2026-08-20Read Markdown14.70+0.9% to today
2026-07-02Read Accumulation14.67+1.1% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
AES Corporation holds its Accumulation at $14.83. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$14.83
Valuation
5.55 trailing · 6.26 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.95
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
57.75%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 57.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.94%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.92%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.35%
Below 5%
Only 2.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 1% discount to our $15.00 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 19.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 1.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Our model and the Street both land near the screened price: fairly valued, with no strong edge either way.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Utility runs on borrowed money
Power plants humming across continents still need real cash flow, not just borrowed fuel. AES trades at 6.2 times forward earnings with 9 percent revenue growth, yet it fails our ethical screen on its debt ratio and posts only 5 percent return on equity behind a narrow moat. We pass.
The low multiple mirrors thin profitability and the heavy leverage that leaves little room for error when interest rates or fuel costs shift. Eight analysts sit on hold with a 15 dollar median target barely above the current price.
We stay away because the ethical screen exists for exactly these cases. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AES trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-08-20Markdown · changed$14.70-0.5%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-07-20Accumulation$14.77+0.7%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-07-18Accumulation$14.67+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-07-16Accumulation$14.67+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-07-03Accumulation$14.67+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$14.67Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
