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The Screen · Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
American Electric Power
AEP · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $68.3B · 17,581 employees
American Electric Power Company, Inc., an electric public utility holding company, engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity for sale to retail and wholesale customers in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
120.00 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-18 · not a live quote Last reviewed 4 days ago
Screened 2026-09-18 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 120.00 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 122.68, over the last year.
Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-08-26
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price120.00 USD
Fair value122.68
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-29Read Distribution125.70-4.5% to today ✓
2026-07-25Read Markup132.14-9.2% to today
2026-07-18Read Distribution129.14-7.1% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
American Electric Power holds its Markdown at $120.00. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$120.00
Valuation
21.77 trailing · 18.29 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.50
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
43.25%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 43.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
5.11%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 5.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.19%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 2% discount to our $122.68 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 7.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 2.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 20 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +19% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Power utility stumbles on debt and valuation
Power bills arrive on time but that does not make every utility a sound holding. American Electric Power clears the operational test yet fails our ethical screen on debt while trading above fair value. We pass for those reasons.
Growth at 10 percent in revenue supports a 16 percent margin and 13 percent return on equity with a moderate moat in place. The 19 times forward earnings multiple however offers no cushion against the 6 percent overvaluation at current prices.
High debt leaves the business exposed if rates stay elevated or regulators tighten allowed returns. Even stable cash flows from regulated assets cannot offset the ethical red flag or the lack of margin of safety here. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AEP trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $145.
2026-07-30Markup$133.59+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $145. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Markup$133.59+1.1%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $145. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$132.14+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $145. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$132.14+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $145. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup · changed$132.14+0.0%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $145. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Distribution$132.14+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $145. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Distribution$132.14+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $145. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Distribution$132.14+2.3%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $145.
2026-07-18Distribution$129.14+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $145.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
